This Weeks Top 25

1 Oregon
2 Ohio State
3 Texas Tech
4 USC
5 Florida State
6 Tennessee
7 Georgia
8 Penn State
9 Arkansas
10 Alabama
11 BYU
12 Missouri
13 Nebraska
14 Utah
15 Ole Miss
16 Minnesota
17 TCU
18 Washington
19 Pittsburgh
20 Miami
21 Illinois
22 Auburn
23 Texas A&M
24 UCF
25 Arizona

This is a power ranking based on who would be favored in a nuetral site mathcup

1 South Florida
2 NC State
3 LSU
4 Iowa State
5 Florida State
6 Mississippi State
7 Tulane
8 Michigan State
9 Ohio State
10 Maryland
11 Missouri
12 Oklahoma
13 Georgia Tech
14 Miami
15 Texas A&M
16 Ole Miss
17 Tennessee
18 Rutgers
19 Minnesota
20 Illinois
21 Washington State
22 New Mexico State
23 TCU
24 Louisville
25 Nebraska

This is a merit based ranking showing who has the best resume thus far

This Week’s Top Games – Week 3 Preview

Playoff-Level Games

Georgia @ Tennessee — Public: Georgia 3.5 | Model: Tennessee 4
(flip: market likes UGA, model likes UT)Tennessee’s modeled edge points to a trench/standard-downs advantage at home that the market isn’t pricing. The public number leans on Georgia’s defensive pedigree, but our model implies the Vols can stay ahead of schedule and hit a few explosives that swing field position. Expect UT to press tempo selectively to stress Georgia’s linebackers horizontally. If the Vols protect the ball and avoid 3rd-and-long, the game script tilts orange; if UGA turns it into a half-court, red-zone trade, the public side re-asserts.South Florida @ Miami — Public: Miami 17.5 | Model: Miami 10.5Same winner, tighter margin. The gap suggests Miami’s drive-to-drive consistency isn’t quite “blowout proof” yet—think hidden yards (penalties, field position) trimming possessions. USF’s best path is pace control and limiting explosives; if the ‘Canes finish with 7s in the red zone, the cover appears, but our model says that’s less frequent than the spread implies.Ohio @ Ohio State — Public: Ohio State 32 | Model: Ohio State 30Both sides agree it’s lopsided; our number just reins in the extreme. Expect OSU to dominate the line but rotate earlier, which lowers late-game scoring volatility. If Ohio can engineer two plus-field starts (returns/turnovers), the backdoor stays live relative to the public.Florida @ LSU — Public: LSU 7.5 | Model: LSU 2.5Market trusts Tiger Stadium and blue-chip depth; our model flags this as more grind than blowout. That points to Florida’s defense holding up on standard downs and forcing LSU to sustain. Watch 3rd-and-medium: if LSU’s pass pro and spacing win those snaps, they can reach public; if not, it’s closer to our number.Texas A&M @ Notre Dame — Public: Notre Dame 7 | Model: Texas A&M 6.5
(flip: market likes ND, model likes A&M)Massive disagreement. Our model favors A&M’s front disrupting the Irish’s rhythm and flipping field position via Havoc plays. Notre Dame’s path is methodical offense plus red-zone efficiency; A&M’s is explosives off play-action and short fields from pressure. Special teams could be the tiebreaker in a one-score, high-leverage game.Clemson @ Georgia Tech — Public: Clemson 3 | Model: Georgia Tech 8
(flip: market likes CU, model likes GT)Model confidence in GT suggests they can win the middle eight and protect the QB enough to access chunk plays. Clemson’s defensive reputation drives the public, but our number indicates Tech’s standard-downs success and early-down pass rate are undervalued. If GT avoids negative plays, they can force Clemson into a pass-first chase script the Tigers don’t prefer.

Other Games

NC State @ Wake Forest — Model: Wake Forest 2 | Public: NC State 7 (flip)
Our model rates Wake’s offense more sustainable at home and trims NC State’s projected finishing rate. If the Deacs protect and hit two explosives, the flip is justified. The Pack’s path is suppressing early-down success and winning the hidden-yards battle.Colorado @ Houston — Model: Houston 7 | Public: Houston 6
Agreement on side; we’re a tick stronger with the Cougars. Houston’s line play and red-zone TD rate project slightly better. Colorado needs explosives and +1 turnover to knock this off script.Kansas State @ Arizona — Model: Arizona 20.5 | Public: Arizona 1
This is one of our largest gaps. We’re buying Arizona’s vertical offense + pass-rush win rate at home. If K-State can’t generate pressure without sacrificing coverage, Arizona’s drive quality spikes. Watch explosives allowed; two shots landing and this matches our margin.Wisconsin @ Alabama — Model: Alabama 10.5 | Public: Alabama 21
We agree Bama, but halve the blowout risk. Wisconsin’s ground game + tempo drag can compress possessions. If the Tide hit explosives early, the public number comes into view; otherwise our tighter spread wins out.Oklahoma @ Temple — Model: Oklahoma 1 | Public: Oklahoma 23.5
Temple’s been rolling, and OU could be in a classic letdown spot after the Michigan win. Our model bakes in that risk via pace/drive count and a stingy Temple success-rate profile. OU still edges it on talent, but the gap to market is huge — Temple’s chances spike if they win special teams and keep OU behind the sticks.Memphis @ Troy — Model: Memphis 11 | Public: Memphis 4.5
We’re materially higher on Memphis. Tigers’ explosive rate + situational havoc travel well here, and Troy’s best lever is suppressing those shot plays. If Troy turns this into a field-position grinder, the public number makes more sense; otherwise we trust our bigger edge.Pittsburgh @ West Virginia (Backyard Brawl) — Model: Pittsburgh 7.5 | Public: Pittsburgh 7
Rivalry shrinks margins, but we still lean Pitt. Panthers project better on early downs and in pass-rush win rate; WVU must create short fields to offset. One turnover swing likely dictates whether it’s a TD or a field-goal game.Liberty @ Bowling Green — Model: Liberty 0.01 | Public: Liberty 6.5
Market likes Liberty by a score; our number is essentially pick’em. That’s pace + finishing-drives skepticism against a team laying full TD on the road. If BG trims explosives and steals a possession, our near-even view holds.Florida Atlantic @ Florida International — Model: Florida Atlantic 11 | Public: Florida International 2.5 (flip)
Our model flips it hard to FAU due to standard-downs efficiency and play-action explosives. FIU’s route is havoc creation and field position; otherwise the Owls’ drive quality stacks up over 60 minutes.Arkansas @ Ole Miss — Model: Ole Miss 1.5 | Public: Ole Miss 7.5
Same side, much smaller. We’re tempering Ole Miss margins because Arkansas can lean into ball control and reduce total plays. If Rebels win the explosives battle by two or more, then the market’s cushion comes alive.Jacksonville State @ Georgia Southern — Model: Jacksonville State 10 | Public: Georgia Southern 4 (flip)
We rate Jax State’s defense/run game combo as travel-proof and more bankable than market implies. Southern’s passing can stress that view, but if Jax State stays ahead of the chains, our flip is warranted.Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech — Model: Old Dominion 3.5 | Public: Virginia Tech 7.5 (flip)
Our model likes ODU’s efficiency profile and special-teams edge. Hokies need chunk plays or a +2 turnover line to overcome the down-to-down gap. If ODU forces long fields, the flip holds.App State @ Southern Miss — Model: Southern Miss 4.5 | Public: App State 2 (flip)
We favor Southern Miss in a defensive lean. App State’s path is explosives; if those are muted, the home side’s success-rate advantage should carry.Vanderbilt @ South Carolina — Model: South Carolina 3 | Public: South Carolina 5
Small difference. Gamecocks’ defense at home + modest finishing-drives edge keeps us on the favorite but under the market. Vandy needs +1 turnovers to flip win probability.New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech — Model: Louisiana Tech 1.5 | Public: Louisiana Tech 9.5
We’re far lower than the market. Pace + likely drive count point to a one-score game more often. If Tech cleans up early-down penalties and hits two explosives, they can stretch it — our base case is tighter.Duke @ Tulane — Model: Tulane 10 | Public: Duke 1.5 (flip)
Model trusts Tulane’s offense to create explosives and finish drives at home. Duke must win third down and keep Tulane to field goals. If tempo creeps up, Tulane’s edge compounds toward our number.Air Force @ Utah State — Model: Air Force 1 | Public: Air Force 4
Both lines give the Falcons the nod; we’re just modest. Option efficiency + clock drain favor Air Force, but Utah State’s chunk plays can scramble that math. Hidden yards (punts, returns) could be decisive.Minnesota @ California — Model: Minnesota 2 | Public: Minnesota 2.5
We’re essentially market here. Gophers’ rushing + defense travel; Cal’s path is explosives and third-down stops. If pace stays slow, expect a one-score finish right on our number.Texas State @ Arizona State — Model: Arizona State 2.5 | Public: Arizona State 14
Same favorite, massive gap. We’re skeptical ASU can consistently separate unless they win field position and finish red-zone trips at a high clip. Texas State’s tempo and shot plays can compress a 14-point spread into late-game coin-flip territory.

Upset Picks

Week 3 Outright Upsets

NC State @ Wake Forest — Model: Wake Forest 2 | Public: NC State 7.Clemson @ Georgia Tech — Model: Georgia Tech 8 | Public: Clemson 3.Georgia @ Tennessee — Model: Tennessee 4 | Public: Georgia 3.5.Florida Atlantic @ Florida International — Model: Florida Atlantic 11 | Public: Florida International 2.5.Jacksonville State @ Georgia Southern — Model: Jacksonville State 10 | Public: Georgia Southern 4.Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech — Model: Old Dominion 3.5 | Public: Virginia Tech 7.5.App State @ Southern Miss — Model: Southern Miss 4.5 | Public: App State 2.Texas A&M @ Notre Dame — Model: Texas A&M 6.5 | Public: Notre Dame 7.Duke @ Tulane — Model: Tulane 10 | Public: Duke 1.5.Navy @ Tulsa — Model: Tulsa 4.5 | Public: Navy 14.

Against The Grain

Public Line Higher Than Model (fade the chalk)

Oklahoma @ Temple — Model: Oklahoma 1 | Public: Oklahoma 23.5.UTEP @ Texas — Model: Texas 19.5 | Public: Texas 41.5.Massachusetts @ Iowa — Model: Iowa 22.5 | Public: Iowa 35.New Mexico @ UCLA — Model: UCLA 5.5 | Public: UCLA 16.Wisconsin @ Alabama — Model: Alabama 10.5 | Public: Alabama 21.USC @ Purdue — Model: USC 10 | Public: USC 21.Utah @ Wyoming — Model: Utah 13 | Public: Utah 23.5.Buffalo @ Kent State — Model: Buffalo 11.5 | Public: Buffalo 22.5.Louisiana @ Missouri — Model: Missouri 20.5 | Public: Missouri 27.Iowa State @ Arkansas State — Model: Iowa State 11.5 | Public: Iowa State 21.Miami @ South Florida — Model: Miami 10.5 | Public: Miami 17.5.New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech — Model: Louisiana Tech 1.5 | Public: Louisiana Tech 9.5.Arkansas @ Ole Miss — Model: Ole Miss 1.5 | Public: Ole Miss 7.5.Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky — Model: Kentucky 18.5 | Public: Kentucky 24

Model Higher Than Public (ride the edge)

Kansas State @ Arizona — Model: Arizona 20.5 | Public: Arizona 1.Oregon State @ Texas Tech — Model: Texas Tech 33.5 | Public: Texas Tech 23.5.UConn @ Delaware — Model: UConn 14 | Public: UConn 10.Washington State @ North Texas — Model: North Texas 7.5 | Public: North Texas 5.5.Memphis @ Troy — Model: Memphis 11 | Public: Memphis 4.5.Akron @ UAB — Model: UAB 17.5 | Public: UAB 12.Coastal Carolina @ East Carolina — Model: East Carolina 10.5 | Public: East Carolina 7.5.Nevada @ Middle Tennessee — Model: Middle Tennessee 9.5 | Public: Middle Tennessee 9.Western Michigan @ Illinois — Model: Illinois 27.5 | Public: Illinois 27.Pittsburgh @ West Virginia — Model: Pittsburgh 7.5 | Public: Pittsburgh 7

Season Numbers

87-23 (79%) GOAL 80%
52-53-5 ATS (50%) GOAL 55%
Upsets 7-10 (41%) GOAL >50%

Full Week 3 Forecast

NC State @ Wake Forest — Model: Wake Forest 2 | Public: NC State 7Colorado @ Houston — Model: Houston 7 | Public: Houston 6Kansas State @ Arizona — Model: Arizona 20.5 | Public: Arizona 1New Mexico @ UCLA — Model: UCLA 5.5 | Public: UCLA 16Central Michigan @ Michigan — Model: Michigan 20 | Public: Michigan 28Oregon @ Northwestern — Model: Oregon 23 | Public: Oregon 27.5Buffalo @ Kent State — Model: Buffalo 11.5 | Public: Buffalo 22.5Wisconsin @ Alabama — Model: Alabama 10.5 | Public: Alabama 21Oklahoma @ Temple — Model: Oklahoma 1 | Public: Oklahoma 23.5Memphis @ Troy — Model: Memphis 11 | Public: Memphis 4.5Clemson @ Georgia Tech — Model: Georgia Tech 8 | Public: Clemson 3South Alabama @ Auburn — Model: Auburn 19.5 | Public: Auburn 24.5UConn @ Delaware — Model: UConn 14 | Public: UConn 10Oregon State @ Texas Tech — Model: Texas Tech 33.5 | Public: Texas Tech 23.5Pittsburgh @ West Virginia — Model: Pittsburgh 7.5 | Public: Pittsburgh 7SMU @ Missouri State — Model: SMU 23 | Public: SMU 27.5USC @ Purdue — Model: USC 10 | Public: USC 21Georgia @ Tennessee — Model: Tennessee 4 | Public: Georgia 3.5Washington State @ North Texas — Model: North Texas 7.5 | Public: North Texas 5.5Louisiana @ Missouri — Model: Missouri 20.5 | Public: Missouri 27Iowa State @ Arkansas State — Model: Iowa State 11.5 | Public: Iowa State 21UTEP @ Texas — Model: Texas 19.5 | Public: Texas 41.5South Florida @ Miami — Model: Miami 10.5 | Public: Miami 17.5Liberty @ Bowling Green — Model: Liberty 0.01 | Public: Liberty 6.5Middle Tennessee @ Nevada — Model: Middle Tennessee 9.5 | Public: Middle Tennessee 9Florida Atlantic @ Florida International — Model: Florida Atlantic 11 | Public: Florida International 2.5Arkansas @ Ole Miss — Model: Ole Miss 1.5 | Public: Ole Miss 7.5Jacksonville State @ Georgia Southern — Model: Jacksonville State 10 | Public: Georgia Southern 4Ohio @ Ohio State — Model: Ohio State 30 | Public: Ohio State 32Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech — Model: Old Dominion 3.5 | Public: Virginia Tech 7.5App State @ Southern Miss — Model: Southern Miss 4.5 | Public: App State 2Western Michigan @ Illinois — Model: Illinois 27.5 | Public: Illinois 27Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky — Model: Kentucky 18.5 | Public: Kentucky 24East Carolina @ Coastal Carolina — Model: East Carolina 10.5 | Public: East Carolina 7.5Massachusetts @ Iowa — Model: Iowa 22.5 | Public: Iowa 35Florida @ LSU — Model: LSU 2.5 | Public: LSU 7.5New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech — Model: Louisiana Tech 1.5 | Public: Louisiana Tech 9.5Texas A&M @ Notre Dame — Model: Texas A&M 6.5 | Public: Notre Dame 7Vanderbilt @ South Carolina — Model: South Carolina 3 | Public: South Carolina 5Duke @ Tulane — Model: Tulane 10 | Public: Duke 1.5Utah @ Wyoming — Model: Utah 13 | Public: Utah 23.5Navy @ Tulsa — Model: Tulsa 4.5 | Public: Navy 14Akron @ UAB — Model: UAB 17.5 | Public: UAB 12Air Force @ Utah State — Model: Air Force 1 | Public: Air Force 4Minnesota @ California — Model: Minnesota 2 | Public: Minnesota 2.5Boston College @ Stanford — Model: Boston College 11.5 | Public: Boston College 11.5Texas State @ Arizona State — Model: Arizona State 2.5 | Public: Arizona State 14