This Weeks Top 25

1 Ohio State
2 Georgia
3 Oregon
4 Texas
5 Alabama
6 Notre Dame
7 Clemson
8 Penn State
9 Miami
10 Tennessee
11 LSU
12 Texas A&M
13 Ole Miss
14 Florida
15 Missouri
16 SMU
17 TCU
18 South Carolina
19 Arizona State
20 Oklahoma
21 USC
22 Michigan
23 Colorado
24 Louisville
25 Arkansas

This Top 25 reflects the evolving power balance in college football, with Ohio State and Oregon leading a stacked Big Ten that also includes USC, Michigan, and Penn State. The SEC remains dominant in sheer volume, boasting nine teams—Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, and South Carolina—showcasing both elite talent and deep conference depth. Texas and Oklahoma, now officially part of the SEC, add even more firepower. The ACC returns to relevance with Clemson, Miami, Louisville, and a surging SMU program. The Big 12, reshaped by realignment, features rising squads like Colorado and Arizona State, alongside TCU. Notre Dame holds firm as a top independent, continuing to contend on the national stage. Altogether, this group blends powerhouse programs with fresh contenders, setting the stage for an unpredictable and competitive season.

Text

Upset Picks

Stanford @ Hawaii
Model: Stanford -2.5 55.9%
Pick: Hawaii

Stanford heads to Honolulu in Week 0 as a 2.5-point favorite according to ESPN, and our model agrees. Still, with limited matchups on the Week 0 slate, this is one of the few games where the conditions hint at potential volatility. Stanford enters with a new coaching staff, a young quarterback, and lingering question marks, while Hawaii returns key pieces and benefits from the travel burden facing their opponent. Our model doesn’t call for the upset, but the setup makes it a game worth keeping your eyes on.

Against The Grain

Fresno State @ Kansas
Model: Kansas -8.5 66.4%
Pick: Fresno State +14

Kansas opens the season as a 14-point favorite over Fresno State, but our model sees this game as much closer—projecting just a 8.5-point spread in favor of the Jayhawks. That 5.5-point gap between our numbers and the betting line makes this a clear “Against the Grain” pick. While Kansas has made strides in recent years, they’ve struggled to cover as double-digit favorites, especially in early-season non-conference games. Fresno State, meanwhile, brings experience and a gritty track record on the road, often playing tougher than expected against Power 5 opponents. Our model still favors Kansas to win, but not by enough to justify the public spread. Fresno State to cover is the smart, data-backed prediction here.

2024 Recap

The 2024 college football season was one of the most memorable in recent history, capped by Ohio State reclaiming national dominance with an undefeated playoff run to the national championship despite a late season collapse over rival Michigan. It was the first season under the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format, and the added access brought new faces to the postseason mix. Teams like Indiana and Oregon made surprise runs, while traditional powers such as Alabama and Georgia found themselves on the outside looking in when it mattered most.The Big Ten solidified its claim as the top conference in college football, if only for a season, producing both the national champion and multiple playoff teams. Indiana, under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, emerged as the nation’s biggest shocker—finishing 11–1 and earning a playoff berth behind a disciplined, physical brand of football. Meanwhile, the SEC went another year without a national title, raising questions about its recent postseason performances despite continued dominance in recruiting.Individually, Travis Hunter of Colorado turned heads all season, playing both sides of the ball at a Heisman-winning level. He became the first true two-way player to win the award since Charles Woodson, igniting debates about versatility and value in the modern game. Boise State's Ashton Jeanty ran wild all over the competition at a pace not seen in decades.Overall, the 2024 season marked a shift in college football's landscape. The new playoff format combined with NIL insanity and the heavy transfer portal usage brought more chaos, more opportunity, and more upsets—signaling a move away from predictable dynasties and toward a wider, more competitive field. With coaching changes, rising programs, and new stars emerging, the sport feels as wide open as it’s been in years.

Full Week 0 Forecast

Kansas vs. Fresno State

Pick: Kansas by 8.5 (66.4% to win)
Kansas opens the season favored by more than a touchdown at home against a tough Mountain West opponent. The Jayhawks started last season a disappointing 2-6 (1-6 vs FBS YIKES!) after a offseason filled excitement for star Jalon Daniels to return. The Jayhawks then rallied in an extremely impressive 3 game win streak over some of the Big 12's top teams Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado disrupting the Big 12 championship picture. The Fresno State Bulldogs also had a up and down year, but finished with an Idaho Potato Bowl berth suffering a loss in a double OT thriller vs the NIU huskies. Many books currently have the Jayhawks as two touchdown favorites, although we agree on the winner, look for a tighter game than expected as this Fresno State team will not lay down easy.

Western Kentucky vs. Sam Houston

Pick: Western Kentucky by 3 (55.9% to win)
Expect a tight one as the Hilltoppers take on a scrappy Sam Houston squad. WKU started 2024 with an embarissing loss to Alabama but ended the year with a spot in the CUSA championship game and a Raton Bowl Berth. Sam Houston Finished their 2024 season 10-3 with quite a few impressive showings on defense narrowly missing out on a conference title berth. The difference? A 31-14 defeat to WKU on October 16. Coming off a win in the New Orleans bowl the Bearkats look to start out 2025 with a revenge victory over the Hilltoppers. This should be a dandy and made our best games of the week list.

Hawai’i vs. Stanford

Pick: Stanford by 2.5 (55.0% to Stanford had an abysmal 2024 season in their first year in the ACC. A 3-9 season with a couple of unexpected wins over Syracuse and Louisville. Hawaii’s season wasn’t much better going 5-7 in the Mountain West. This week one game may come down to which team grew the most through the offseason. Our model likes Stanford narrowly but this could be a somewhat even game if neither time has improved.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State

Pick: Iowa State by 1 (52.0% to win) This year’s edition of “Farmageddon” sets up to be a dandy, kicking off the 2025 college football season in Dublin. Iowa State is slightly favored in our models projection. All eyes will be on returning quarterbacks Rocco Becht (ISU) and Avery Johnson (KSU). Both teams have a lot of hype entering the season believing their returning quarterback talent can propel them to Big12 title condition. Iowa State actually made the title game last season but fell short to the Sun Devils however they lose a ton of production on the offensive side of the ball. Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance but is often derailed by turnover issues, if that is cleaned up watch out for the Wildcats.

UNLV vs. Idaho State

Pick: UNLV (FCS opponent, 99.9% to win)
This one’s a tune-up for the Rebels. Against FCS Idaho State, UNLV is nearly a lock to cruise to a dominant victory before the schedule ramps up.