This Weeks Top 25

1 Oregon
2 Ohio State
3 Florida State
4 Penn State
5 Indiana
6 Alabama
7 Texas Tech
8 USC
9 Miami
10 Georgia
11 Missouri
12 Texas
13 Ole Miss
14 LSU
15 Tennessee
16 Oklahoma
17 Washington
18 Nebraska
19 BYU
20 Vanderbilt
21 Mississippi State
22 UCF
23 Michigan
24 Texas A&M
25 TCU

This is a power ranking based on who would be favored in a nuetral site mathcup

1 Miami
2 Ole Miss
3 Oklahoma
4 LSU
5 Missouri
6 Texas A&M
7 Georgia Tech
8 USC
9 Iowa State
10 Georgia
11 Indiana
12 Ohio State
13 Mississippi State
14 Michigan
15 Memphis
16 NC State
17 TCU
18 Tulane
19 Maryland
20 Vanderbilt
21 South Florida
22 Florida State
23 Houston
24 UCF
25 BYU

This is a merit based ranking showing who has the best resume thus far

This Week’s Top Games – Week 5 Preview

Most Intriguing Matchups

TCU at Arizona State — Model: TCU 1.5 | Public: Arizona State 2.5
Model flips on QB efficiency and explosives; if TCU stays on schedule, the Horned Frogs close it late.UCF at Kansas State — Model: UCF 13 | Public: Kansas State 6
We price UCF’s offense multiple scores better. K-State’s route is Havoc + short fields; without them, separation appears by the 4th.Notre Dame at Arkansas — Model: Arkansas 4 | Public: Notre Dame 5
Model favors Hogs’ red-zone touchdown rate and trench leverage; market sticks with Irish brand. Edge: Arkansas.Louisville at Pittsburgh — Model: Pittsburgh 0.5 | Public: Louisville 4.5
Razor thin. Field position and 3rd-and-medium win rate likely swing the final possession.Duke at Syracuse — Model: Syracuse 10.5 | Public: Duke 5
Two-touchdown swing between columns. If ‘Cuse is turnover-neutral, our spread says they control game state.UConn at Buffalo — Model: Buffalo 0.5 | Public: UConn 3.5
We make it basically pick’em with a home lean; special teams and penalties loom large.Hawai‘i at Air Force — Model: Hawai‘i 7 | Public: Air Force 6
Flip to the ‘Bows—explosives and drive quality point to an upset if AF can’t dictate pace.Tennessee at Mississippi State — Model: Mississippi State 1.5 | Public: Tennessee 7.5
Our chart says Bulldogs by a nose; Vols must win early downs to keep the air raid off schedule.Marshall at Louisiana — Model: Marshall 1 | Public: Louisiana 1.5
Model leans Herd’s success rate and finishing drives; expect a grinder.

Upset Picks

Week 5 Outright Upsets

Arizona State vs TCU — Model: TCU 1.5 | Public: Arizona State 2.5Kansas State vs UCF — Model: UCF 13 | Public: Kansas State 6Arkansas vs Notre Dame — Model: Arkansas 4 | Public: Notre Dame 5Pittsburgh vs Louisville — Model: Pittsburgh 0.5 | Public: Louisville 4.5Syracuse vs Duke — Model: Syracuse 10.5 | Public: Duke 5Buffalo vs UConn — Model: Buffalo 0.5 | Public: UConn 3.5Air Force vs Hawai‘i — Model: Hawai‘i 7 | Public: Air Force 6Mississippi State vs Tennessee — Model: Mississippi State 1.5 | Public: Tennessee 7.5Louisiana vs Marshall — Model: Marshall 1 | Public: Louisiana 1.5

Against The Grain

Public Line Higher Than Model (fade the chalk)

Oklahoma State vs Baylor — Model: Baylor 7 | Public: Baylor 20.5Tulsa vs Tulane — Model: Tulane 2 | Public: Tulane 13.5Navy vs Rice — Model: Navy 4 | Public: Navy 14.5Boise State vs App State — Model: Boise State 6 | Public: Boise State 16Washington vs Ohio State — Model: Ohio State 3.5 | Public: Ohio State 9.5West Virginia vs Utah — Model: Utah 5.5 | Public: Utah 10.5Oregon State vs Houston — Model: Houston 16 | Public: Houston 13Old Dominion vs Liberty — Model: Old Dominion 11 | Public: Old Dominion 16Georgia vs Alabama — Model: Georgia 2.5 | Public: Georgia 3Penn State vs Oregon — Model: Penn State 0.5 | Public: Penn State 3.5

Model Higher Than Public (ride the edge)

Texas A&M vs Auburn — Model: Texas A&M 10 | Public: Texas A&M 6.5Ole Miss vs LSU — Model: Ole Miss 4.5 | Public: Ole Miss 1.5Illinois vs USC — Model: USC 7.5 | Public: USC 6.5North Texas vs South Alabama — Model: North Texas 14.5 | Public: North Texas 12.5Northern Illinois vs San Diego State — Model: San Diego State 10 | Public: San Diego State 3Northwestern vs UCLA — Model: Northwestern 10 | Public: Northwestern 6.5Stanford vs San José State — Model: Stanford 7 | Public: Stanford 2.5Missouri State vs Western Kentucky — Model: Western Kentucky 13 | Public: Western Kentucky 5Toledo vs Akron — Model: Toledo 18 | Public: Toledo 21

Season Numbers

154-53 (74%) GOAL 80%
101-97-7 ATS (51%) GOAL 55%
Upsets 15-19 (44%) GOAL >50%

Full Week 5 Forecast

Oregon State vs Houston — Model: Houston 16 | Public: Houston 13Ohio vs Bowling Green — Model: Ohio 3.5 | Public: Ohio 10Kansas vs Cincinnati — Model: Kansas 4 | Public: Kansas 4.5Kansas State vs UCF — Model: UCF 13 | Public: Kansas State 6Illinois vs USC — Model: USC 7.5 | Public: USC 6.5Arkansas vs Notre Dame — Model: Arkansas 4 | Public: Notre Dame 5Minnesota vs Rutgers — Model: Pick’em | Public: Minnesota 5.5Pittsburgh vs Louisville — Model: Pittsburgh 0.5 | Public: Louisville 4.5Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech — Model: Georgia Tech 6 | Public: Georgia Tech 13.5North Texas vs South Alabama — Model: North Texas 14.5 | Public: North Texas 12.5Syracuse vs Duke — Model: Syracuse 10.5 | Public: Duke 5Vanderbilt vs Utah State — Model: Vanderbilt 18 | Public: Vanderbilt 22.5Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan — Model: Central Michigan 4 | Public: Central Michigan 5.5James Madison vs Georgia Southern — Model: James Madison 9 | Public: James Madison 17UL Monroe vs Arkansas State — Model: Arkansas State 1.5 | Public: Arkansas State 2Oklahoma State vs Baylor — Model: Baylor 7 | Public: Baylor 20.5Ole Miss vs LSU — Model: Ole Miss 4.5 | Public: Ole Miss 1.5Toledo vs Akron — Model: Toledo 18 | Public: Toledo 21Navy vs Rice — Model: Navy 4 | Public: Navy 14.5Texas A&M vs Auburn — Model: Texas A&M 10 | Public: Texas A&M 6.5Iowa vs Indiana — Model: Pick’em | Public: Iowa 7.5Northern Illinois vs San Diego State — Model: San Diego State 10 | Public: San Diego State 3Northwestern vs UCLA — Model: Northwestern 10 | Public: Northwestern 6.5Boston College vs California — Model: California 1.5 | Public: California 6.5Buffalo vs UConn — Model: Buffalo 0.5 | Public: UConn 3.5West Virginia vs Utah — Model: Utah 5.5 | Public: Utah 10.5Washington vs Ohio State — Model: Ohio State 3.5 | Public: Ohio State 9.5New Mexico vs New Mexico State — Model: New Mexico State 8 | Public: New Mexico State 14Tulsa vs Tulane — Model: Tulane 2 | Public: Tulane 13.5Air Force vs Hawai‘i — Model: Hawai‘i 7 | Public: Air Force 6Mississippi State vs Tennessee — Model: Mississippi State 1.5 | Public: Tennessee 7.5Old Dominion vs Liberty — Model: Old Dominion 11 | Public: Old Dominion 16Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee — Model: Middle Tennessee 5.5 | Public: Middle Tennessee 7.5Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State — Model: Jacksonville State 2.5 | Public: Jacksonville State 4Missouri State vs Western Kentucky — Model: Western Kentucky 13 | Public: Western Kentucky 5Florida Atlantic vs Memphis — Model: Memphis 10.5 | Public: Memphis 13.5Iowa State vs Arizona — Model: Arizona 1 | Public: Iowa State 5.5NC State vs Virginia Tech — Model: Pick’em | Public: NC State 10.5Colorado State vs Washington State — Model: Washington State 5.5 | Public: Colorado State 5Missouri vs Massachusetts — Model: Missouri 37.5 | Public: Missouri 44.5Stanford vs San José State — Model: Stanford 7 | Public: Stanford 2.5Georgia vs Alabama — Model: Georgia 2.5 | Public: Georgia 3Penn State vs Oregon — Model: Penn State 0.5 | Public: Penn State 3.5Boise State vs App State — Model: Boise State 6 | Public: Boise State 16South Carolina vs Kentucky — Model: Kentucky 2.5 | Public: South Carolina 6.5Louisiana vs Marshall — Model: Marshall 1 | Public: Louisiana 1.5UTEP vs Louisiana Tech — Model: Louisiana Tech 5 | Public: Louisiana Tech 4Colorado vs BYU — Model: BYU 8 | Public: Colorado 6.5